Iowa Comes Down ToThe Wire

The latest polls show Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, followed by Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Michele Bachmann is bringing up the rear, having fallen to single digits.

Romney campaigned in Des Moines today, stumping with New Jersey governor Chris Christie on a cold wet day with temperatures in the twenties. Considering the weather, Romeny drew a decent crowd as he mocked President Obama and his $4 million Hawaiian vacation.

"We’re out in the cold and the rain and the wind because we care about America. He just finished his 90th round of golf.”

Governor Christie: “You people disappoint me on Tuesday, you don’t do what you’re supposed to do on Tuesday for Mitt Romney I will be back, Jersey-style, people. I will be back,” he joked.

Rick Santorum is moving up in the polls as Newt Gingrich has been falling. A lot of evangelicals are reportedly giving him a second look. He's invested a great deal of time here in Iowa and he needs a strong finish here to keep his campaign viable.

Michele Bachmann has perhaps the saddest story of all. After winning the Ames straw poll, she suffered perhaps a terminal blow when her Iowa campaign chair defected to Ron Paul without giving her any warning whatsoever.

As much as I like Michele Bachmann, I think what we're seeing here is an indication that her campaign was hurried and perhaps premature. She's only been in Congress four years,and hopefully she can make another try for top job when she's had a little more seasoning and time to process what went wrong this time.

Iowa Comes Down ToThe Wire

The latest polls show Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, followed by Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Michele Bachmann is bringing up the rear, having fallen to single digits.

Romney campaigned in Des Moines today, stumping with New Jersey governor Chris Christie on a cold wet day with temperatures in the twenties. Considering the weather, Romeny drew a decent crowd as he mocked President Obama and his $4 million Hawaiian vacation.

"We’re out in the cold and the rain and the wind because we care about America. He just finished his 90th round of golf.”

Governor Christie: “You people disappoint me on Tuesday, you don’t do what you’re supposed to do on Tuesday for Mitt Romney I will be back, Jersey-style, people. I will be back,” he joked.

Rick Santorum is moving up in the polls as Newt Gingrich has been falling. A lot of evangelicals are reportedly giving him a second look. He's invested a great deal of time here in Iowa and he needs a strong finish here to keep his campaign viable.

Michele Bachmann has perhaps the saddest story of all. After winning the Ames straw poll, she suffered perhaps a terminal blow when her Iowa campaign chair defected to Ron Paul without giving her any warning whatsoever.

As much as I like Michele Bachmann, I think what we're seeing here is an indication that her campaign was hurried and perhaps premature. She's only been in Congress four years,and hopefully she can make another try for top job when she's had a little more seasoning and time to process what went wrong this time.

The State Of The GOP Race

In this most interesting of election years, the Republican race remains oddly unsettled.

With real unemployment (as opposed to the far less realistic 'official' U-3 unemployment rate) hovering at between 13& and 15% and the president's approval ratings in the low forties, 2012 was largely seen as the GOP's to lose.

Instead, we're seeing something far different as a large number of Republican voters - some estimates are as high as one third - remain dissatisfied with the GOP field as they view the debates and approach the Iowa caucus.

A major part of the sour flavor of the current race comes from the fact that many people who identify themselves as conservatives and Tea Party adherents don't feel like they have a real dog in the fight, especially since Sarah Palin decided not to run.

The race has come down various attempts to try to find a 'not-Romney' just as I predicted; each not-Romney has had their moment in the sun and been revealed as disappointingly less than perfect. Let's look at them in turn:

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann came into the race with solid Tea Party credentials. Given her intelligence, high principles and charisma, for awhile it appeared that she might be able to pick up a lot of Sarah Palin's support. Unfortunately, the fact that she's only been in public life for four years was underlined by a number of unfortunate gaffes and her own admission that she 'should have Googled Ed Rollins' before making the unforced error of hiring him as her campaign manager. Between that early false start and her remarks about an unidentified child getting cancer from a common vaccine, she may simply not be ready for prime time yet. Her results in Iowa are going to say a great deal about her future prospects.

Ex-Senator Rick Santorum brought conservative principles and character into to race and a decent knowledge of foreign policy and national security issues, but he's been handcuffed by two things; his 18 point loss for re-election in Pennsylvania has convinced a lot of people he would be unable to win against President Obama, and his insistence on talking about conservative social issues is not exactly what people want to hear just now.In addition, his persona and speaking style seem to lend itself to being overshadowed by the more high profile candidates. Unlike some of the others, he's never had his moment in the sun yet. His showing in Iowa is also going to say a great deal about his future prospects.

Former Governor and Ambassador John Huntsman - yes, he's in the race too - is actually perhaps a better candidate than some people realize. Not exactly a man with the 'conservative' label associated with him, he nevertheless has some common sense stands on economic matters and on foreign policy, particularly when it comes to China, where he served as our ambassador. However that service, performed at the behest of President Obama has hurt his candidacy, and it's been difficult for him to get traction.

Texas Governor Rick Perry originally seemed like the 'anyone but Romney' dream candidate. To some, I'm sure he still is. Not only did he seem to have a solid reputation as a conservative, but he was the longest serving governor in the US - and the one with by far the best record on job creation. He surged in the polls as soon as he got in the race.

And then, the debates happened.

Not only did they reveal a position on illegal aliens that was sharply at variance with most of the GOP base, but they revealed that he simply was lousy in a debate format period. Perry's failure to name three government departments he would shut down after thumping his chest and announcing it has to rank as one of the most embarrassing gaffes in political history.

While his last couple of outings have been somewhat better, the image of him as a gaffe-prone, fumbling, pro-illegal immigration candidate who might be severely challenged to beat Barack Obama is going to be difficult to erase.

Congressman Ron Paul remains the bête noire of the Republican Party, a paleo-conservative who appeals to what could best be characterized as the diminishing Pat Buchanan, isolationist America Firster wing of the Republican Party.

He holds the distinction of being the one Republican candidate certain to cause a massive Republican crossover vote in favor of President Obama. In fact, as I mentioned before, President Obama and his handlers realize it too, which I think accounts for the sudden respect Paul in getting from the Obama Administration's media allies as well as Paul's higher profile and financial clout.

Paul may actually win the Iowa caucus, which is not an actual primary but amounts to getting one's foot soldiers out into the January snow in sufficient numbers to dominate the caucus voting. He has a very slim chance of actually getting the GOP nomination, but I think there's an excellent chance he may surface as a third party candidate in an attempt to siphon off a few Republican votes.

I group Speaker Newt Gingrich and Governor Mitt Romney together because in many ways they belong together, aside from being the two presumptive front runners. Both are, essentially, big government types, albeit leaning towards the conservative side. Both are known for changing their views frequently on issues like global warming, cap and trade, various social conservative issues and mandated government run healthcare among others. Both have performed well enough in the debates to appear 'presidential'. Both would likely operate as Theodore Roosevelt-style Republicans rather than as conservatives.

Both Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich have their own set of advantages and disadvantages.

Governor Romney has the executive experience of running a state Newt Gingrich lacks, Unfortunately, his signature achievement while governor of Massachusetts was state mandated healthcare, the direct ancestor of ObamaCare. The Massachusetts plan has been an abysmal failure, and Romney has continued to be associated with it because he's refused to plainly label it as such.

Governor Romney also has the executive experience of being a successful businessman who created jobs and wealth in the private sector. Even his missionary experience as a Mormon comes into play, where he performed with grit and determination amid difficult circumstances and rose to become the head of Mormon missionary activities in France.

Governor Romney also has the distinction, to my mind at least, of giving serious thought to international affairs and national security issues. And he's attracted a top notch group of A-list advisers in these matters because of it.

His main drawbacks? Aside from his association with the Massachusetts health plan, he has the problem of being known as the governor of a very left leaning Northeast blue state at a time when the GOP's strength is concentrated in the South, West and Midwest. His 'likeability ' factor remains in question, with Governor Romney still polling in the 20's among his own party in spite of months of campaigning. And because of his personal wealth, he's an ideal target for the sort of class warfare campaign President Obama will unleash. Nevertheless, as respectable conservative pundits like Ann Coulter have said, he might be the best thing going so far.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has the advantage of being demonstrably bright and quick on his feet mentally. Many of his supporters associate him with his time as Speaker of the House during the Clinton Administration, the last time Big Government was actually shrunken a bit. Even before that , Gingrich and a few outspoken supporters challenged the status quo in Congress, and eventually delivered a GOP House majority in 1996 that forced changes in how things were done in Washington.

On the minus side,there are also people who remember the arrogant, impulsive, loose cannon side of Gingrich's persona as Speaker, including a number of people who worked with him in Congress. It's an open question as to whether that side of his mercurial personality has changed to the point he would be an effective president.

There's also Gingrich's rather colorful and complicated personal life and his long history as a Washington insider that are going to give a great many people pause when it comes to voting for him as president.

Frankly, there isn't anyone in the above list who has so far excited the Republican base. It remains to be seen if any of the above can overcome their drawbacks and rise above the field.

Not surprisingly, there have been more than a few noises abou tother candidates getting into the race. Because of the way this year's GOP primary schedule is set up, it's actually quite possible that a new candidate could jump in, as Sarah Palin pointed out.

For that matter, from a very different part of the political spectrum , no less than former Florida governor Jeb Bush sounded off with an article on conservatism that could very much be seen as a testing of the waters.

Politics, like nature in general abhors a vacuum. It remains to be seen if that vacuum gets filled from someone who's already in the ring or from someone new from out side it.

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The State Of The GOP Race

In this most interesting of election years, the Republican race remains oddly unsettled.

With real unemployment (as opposed to the far less realistic 'official' U-3 unemployment rate) hovering at between 13& and 15% and the president's approval ratings in the low forties, 2012 was largely seen as the GOP's to lose.

Instead, we're seeing something far different as a large number of Republican voters - some estimates are as high as one third - remain dissatisfied with the GOP field as they view the debates and approach the Iowa caucus.

A major part of the sour flavor of the current race comes from the fact that many people who identify themselves as conservatives and Tea Party adherents don't feel like they have a real dog in the fight, especially since Sarah Palin decided not to run.

The race has come down various attempts to try to find a 'not-Romney' just as I predicted; each not-Romney has had their moment in the sun and been revealed as disappointingly less than perfect. Let's look at them in turn:

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann came into the race with solid Tea Party credentials. Given her intelligence, high principles and charisma, for awhile it appeared that she might be able to pick up a lot of Sarah Palin's support. Unfortunately, the fact that she's only been in public life for four years was underlined by a number of unfortunate gaffes and her own admission that she 'should have Googled Ed Rollins' before making the unforced error of hiring him as her campaign manager. Between that early false start and her remarks about an unidentified child getting cancer from a common vaccine, she may simply not be ready for prime time yet. Her results in Iowa are going to say a great deal about her future prospects.

Ex-Senator Rick Santorum brought conservative principles and character into to race and a decent knowledge of foreign policy and national security issues, but he's been handcuffed by two things; his 18 point loss for re-election in Pennsylvania has convinced a lot of people he would be unable to win against President Obama, and his insistence on talking about conservative social issues is not exactly what people want to hear just now.In addition, his persona and speaking style seem to lend itself to being overshadowed by the more high profile candidates. Unlike some of the others, he's never had his moment in the sun yet. His showing in Iowa is also going to say a great deal about his future prospects.

Former Governor and Ambassador John Huntsman - yes, he's in the race too - is actually perhaps a better candidate than some people realize. Not exactly a man with the 'conservative' label associated with him, he nevertheless has some common sense stands on economic matters and on foreign policy, particularly when it comes to China, where he served as our ambassador. However that service, performed at the behest of President Obama has hurt his candidacy, and it's been difficult for him to get traction.

Texas Governor Rick Perry originally seemed like the 'anyone but Romney' dream candidate. To some, I'm sure he still is. Not only did he seem to have a solid reputation as a conservative, but he was the longest serving governor in the US - and the one with by far the best record on job creation. He surged in the polls as soon as he got in the race.

And then, the debates happened.

Not only did they reveal a position on illegal aliens that was sharply at variance with most of the GOP base, but they revealed that he simply was lousy in a debate format period. Perry's failure to name three government departments he would shut down after thumping his chest and announcing it has to rank as one of the most embarrassing gaffes in political history.

While his last couple of outings have been somewhat better, the image of him as a gaffe-prone, fumbling, pro-illegal immigration candidate who might be severely challenged to beat Barack Obama is going to be difficult to erase.

Congressman Ron Paul remains the bête noire of the Republican Party, a paleo-conservative who appeals to what could best be characterized as the diminishing Pat Buchanan, isolationist America Firster wing of the Republican Party.

He holds the distinction of being the one Republican candidate certain to cause a massive Republican crossover vote in favor of President Obama. In fact, as I mentioned before, President Obama and his handlers realize it too, which I think accounts for the sudden respect Paul in getting from the Obama Administration's media allies as well as Paul's higher profile and financial clout.

Paul may actually win the Iowa caucus, which is not an actual primary but amounts to getting one's foot soldiers out into the January snow in sufficient numbers to dominate the caucus voting. He has a very slim chance of actually getting the GOP nomination, but I think there's an excellent chance he may surface as a third party candidate in an attempt to siphon off a few Republican votes.

I group Speaker Newt Gingrich and Governor Mitt Romney together because in many ways they belong together, aside from being the two presumptive front runners. Both are, essentially, big government types, albeit leaning towards the conservative side. Both are known for changing their views frequently on issues like global warming, cap and trade, various social conservative issues and mandated government run healthcare among others. Both have performed well enough in the debates to appear 'presidential'. Both would likely operate as Theodore Roosevelt-style Republicans rather than as conservatives.

Both Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich have their own set of advantages and disadvantages.

Governor Romney has the executive experience of running a state Newt Gingrich lacks, Unfortunately, his signature achievement while governor of Massachusetts was state mandated healthcare, the direct ancestor of ObamaCare. The Massachusetts plan has been an abysmal failure, and Romney has continued to be associated with it because he's refused to plainly label it as such.

Governor Romney also has the executive experience of being a successful businessman who created jobs and wealth in the private sector. Even his missionary experience as a Mormon comes into play, where he performed with grit and determination amid difficult circumstances and rose to become the head of Mormon missionary activities in France.

Governor Romney also has the distinction, to my mind at least, of giving serious thought to international affairs and national security issues. And he's attracted a top notch group of A-list advisers in these matters because of it.

His main drawbacks? Aside from his association with the Massachusetts health plan, he has the problem of being known as the governor of a very left leaning Northeast blue state at a time when the GOP's strength is concentrated in the South, West and Midwest. His 'likeability ' factor remains in question, with Governor Romney still polling in the 20's among his own party in spite of months of campaigning. And because of his personal wealth, he's an ideal target for the sort of class warfare campaign President Obama will unleash. Nevertheless, as respectable conservative pundits like Ann Coulter have said, he might be the best thing going so far.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has the advantage of being demonstrably bright and quick on his feet mentally. Many of his supporters associate him with his time as Speaker of the House during the Clinton Administration, the last time Big Government was actually shrunken a bit. Even before that , Gingrich and a few outspoken supporters challenged the status quo in Congress, and eventually delivered a GOP House majority in 1996 that forced changes in how things were done in Washington.

On the minus side,there are also people who remember the arrogant, impulsive, loose cannon side of Gingrich's persona as Speaker, including a number of people who worked with him in Congress. It's an open question as to whether that side of his mercurial personality has changed to the point he would be an effective president.

There's also Gingrich's rather colorful and complicated personal life and his long history as a Washington insider that are going to give a great many people pause when it comes to voting for him as president.

Frankly, there isn't anyone in the above list who has so far excited the Republican base. It remains to be seen if any of the above can overcome their drawbacks and rise above the field.

Not surprisingly, there have been more than a few noises abou tother candidates getting into the race. Because of the way this year's GOP primary schedule is set up, it's actually quite possible that a new candidate could jump in, as Sarah Palin pointed out.

For that matter, from a very different part of the political spectrum , no less than former Florida governor Jeb Bush sounded off with an article on conservatism that could very much be seen as a testing of the waters.

Politics, like nature in general abhors a vacuum. It remains to be seen if that vacuum gets filled from someone who's already in the ring or from someone new from out side it.

please donate...it helps me write more gooder!

Last Night's Debate - The War Zone

Yes, I watch these things so you don't have to.

With the Iowa caucus just around the corner, the potential GOP nominees were a lot more contentious and in attack mode than at any of the debates thus far.

As you might expect,most of the fire was directed at perceived front runner Newt Gingrich, which Mitt Romney also taking a few hits as some of the candidates a little lower in the polls saw this as a chance to damage the front runners and gain traction.

Michele Bachmann was particularly outspoken, since she's devoted a great deal of time, energy and resources to Iowa. A poor showing here would damage her quite a bit, since her support and presence in New Hampshire is fairly low key.

Speaking of attacks, I frankly have had it with Rick Perry. Previously, he refused to repute a bigoted, anti-Mormon supporter of his until pressed, and even then I felt it was halfhearted. Last night, he attacked Newt Gingrich in a particularly nasty and personal way, saying you can’t trust people who violate their marriage vows -- vows made, as he said, not only with one’s spouse but also with G-d. "That’s even stronger than a handshake in Texas".

Gingrich does have some issues here, everyone knows it and he's been fairly candid about it. But to attack him in that fashion on nationwide TV was cowardly and beyond the pale as far as I'm concerned.

It drew some criticism in certain quarters, but I personally thought it was just wonderful when Mitt Romney, attacked by Perry about a supposed revision in Romney's book stuck out his hand to Perry and bet him a cool $10,000 that Perry was dead wrong. The look on Perry's face when he turned away and said "I'm not in the betting business' was priceless. It was almost as good as his brain freeze the other night when he was challenged to name the three government departments he had been thumping his chest about closing down and then couldn't even name them.

Hopefully Perry will be riding off into the sunset after Iowa.

Mitt Romney also tried to attack Newt Gingrich, and didn't do so well at it.

Trying to explain his differences with Gingrich, he ticked off a whole series of issues, but the big difference he tried to capitalize on was the idea of Gingrich as a career politician and Washington insider.

“We don’t need folks who are lifetime Washington people to get this country out of the mess it’s in,” Romney said. “We need people from outside Washington, outside K Street.”

Gingrich's response? “Let’s be candid,” he said. “The only reason you didn’t become a career politician is because you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994. . . . You’d have been a 17-year career politician if you’d won.”

The candidate who actually made took the best shots at the two front runners was Michele Bachmann. She focused on the likenesses between both of them and got in some very good shots.

Rick Santorum also had a fairly good night of it, with a message that seemed focused on Iowa caucus voters. People who used to support Herman Cain or have soured on Newt Gingrich need a place to go, and Santorum seemed to concentrate on reassuring them that he was a safe place to land.

Bottom line? Newt Gingrich seemed to shrug off most of what was thrown at him, although it's going to be hard to tell. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum may have advanced their chances a notch, although whether it will be enough to keep going after Iowa remains to be seen.

One important caveat about Iowa...it's a caucus not a primary. Rather than actual votes, it's a contest to see which candidate is better at mobilizing his or her troops on the ground, getting them to the caucus meetings and then having them take over the meetings once they're there.Which is why no one should be surprised to see a marginal candidate like Ron Paul do well there.

By the way, I'll have some interesting news on Ron Paul a bit later that sheds a lot of light on things.

please donate...it helps me write more gooder!

Last Night's Debate - The War Zone

Yes, I watch these things so you don't have to.

With the Iowa caucus just around the corner, the potential GOP nominees were a lot more contentious and in attack mode than at any of the debates thus far.

As you might expect,most of the fire was directed at perceived front runner Newt Gingrich, which Mitt Romney also taking a few hits as some of the candidates a little lower in the polls saw this as a chance to damage the front runners and gain traction.

Michele Bachmann was particularly outspoken, since she's devoted a great deal of time, energy and resources to Iowa. A poor showing here would damage her quite a bit, since her support and presence in New Hampshire is fairly low key.

Speaking of attacks, I frankly have had it with Rick Perry. Previously, he refused to repute a bigoted, anti-Mormon supporter of his until pressed, and even then I felt it was halfhearted. Last night, he attacked Newt Gingrich in a particularly nasty and personal way, saying you can’t trust people who violate their marriage vows -- vows made, as he said, not only with one’s spouse but also with G-d. "That’s even stronger than a handshake in Texas".

Gingrich does have some issues here, everyone knows it and he's been fairly candid about it. But to attack him in that fashion on nationwide TV was cowardly and beyond the pale as far as I'm concerned.

It drew some criticism in certain quarters, but I personally thought it was just wonderful when Mitt Romney, attacked by Perry about a supposed revision in Romney's book stuck out his hand to Perry and bet him a cool $10,000 that Perry was dead wrong. The look on Perry's face when he turned away and said "I'm not in the betting business' was priceless. It was almost as good as his brain freeze the other night when he was challenged to name the three government departments he had been thumping his chest about closing down and then couldn't even name them.

Hopefully Perry will be riding off into the sunset after Iowa.

Mitt Romney also tried to attack Newt Gingrich, and didn't do so well at it.

Trying to explain his differences with Gingrich, he ticked off a whole series of issues, but the big difference he tried to capitalize on was the idea of Gingrich as a career politician and Washington insider.

“We don’t need folks who are lifetime Washington people to get this country out of the mess it’s in,” Romney said. “We need people from outside Washington, outside K Street.”

Gingrich's response? “Let’s be candid,” he said. “The only reason you didn’t become a career politician is because you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994. . . . You’d have been a 17-year career politician if you’d won.”

The candidate who actually made took the best shots at the two front runners was Michele Bachmann. She focused on the likenesses between both of them and got in some very good shots.

Rick Santorum also had a fairly good night of it, with a message that seemed focused on Iowa caucus voters. People who used to support Herman Cain or have soured on Newt Gingrich need a place to go, and Santorum seemed to concentrate on reassuring them that he was a safe place to land.

Bottom line? Newt Gingrich seemed to shrug off most of what was thrown at him, although it's going to be hard to tell. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum may have advanced their chances a notch, although whether it will be enough to keep going after Iowa remains to be seen.

One important caveat about Iowa...it's a caucus not a primary. Rather than actual votes, it's a contest to see which candidate is better at mobilizing his or her troops on the ground, getting them to the caucus meetings and then having them take over the meetings once they're there.Which is why no one should be surprised to see a marginal candidate like Ron Paul do well there.

By the way, I'll have some interesting news on Ron Paul a bit later that sheds a lot of light on things.

please donate...it helps me write more gooder!