Gingrich's Supporters Evenly Split Between Mitt and Rick For Second Choice

Now this is interesting.

According to Gallup:



Apparently if Newt Gingrich drops out of the race (and I doubt he will unless he runs out of money) Santorum might not benefit as much as some people think.

Apparently some people have noticed that in spite of his labeling himself a 'conservative', he's really just a Big Government guy from the other side of the spectrum.

(h/t, Ace)

Gingrich's Supporters Evenly Split Between Mitt and Rick For Second Choice

Now this is interesting.

According to Gallup:



Apparently if Newt Gingrich drops out of the race (and I doubt he will unless he runs out of money) Santorum might not benefit as much as some people think.

Apparently some people have noticed that in spite of his labeling himself a 'conservative', he's really just a Big Government guy from the other side of the spectrum.

(h/t, Ace)

The New WAPO/ABC Poll - Gaming The Numbers For Obama

There a brand spanking new poll out today by the Washington Post and ABC News supposedly showing President Obama topping GOP front runner Mitt Romney nationally.

It claims that 55% of the respondents dislike what they're hearing from the GOP candidates in general, that 57% approved of what they heard from President Obama's State of the Union address and that he tops Romney in a general election matchup, 51% to 47%.

Iwould bet that these particular poll rating are absolutely accurate - based on whom the WAPO/ABC pollsters asked.

You see, this is the second time the WAPO/ABC news poll has neglected to release figures on the Democrat/Republican/Independent percentages in its report...and I'd bet that going to be the way things go with this particular poll from now on until election day.

You might remember an occasion last December when we examined the mechanics of a WAPO/ABC poll that oversampled Democrats and was weighted as much as 50% to 60% weighted towards the Left end of the spectrum. And there was this one, with the same pollsters that only sampled 22% Republicans to get the desired results.

At least on those occasions, someone who could read between the lines and look at the mechanics could see how badly the polls were skewed. But the WAPO/ABC pollsters have learned,and now they aren't even releasing any figures on the affiliation whom they polled.And to skew it even more, they merely polled 1,000 adults, rather than likely voters, something utterly ridiculous for primary season. For all we know, they could have polled 700 hardcore SEIU members and talked to the other 300 at a supermarket parking lot.

Based on their previous track record, I'd say that this particular WAPO/ABC poll is worth about as much as what's pictured above. Less in fact, because at least the product above has value as manure.

There's no question that President Obama's overall ratings probably are up a bit because of the GOP infighting, the partisan press coverage and the highly manipulated economic data. I wouldn't count on the third factor lasting until November.

The New WAPO/ABC Poll - Gaming The Numbers For Obama

There a brand spanking new poll out today by the Washington Post and ABC News supposedly showing President Obama topping GOP front runner Mitt Romney nationally.

It claims that 55% of the respondents dislike what they're hearing from the GOP candidates in general, that 57% approved of what they heard from President Obama's State of the Union address and that he tops Romney in a general election matchup, 51% to 47%.

Iwould bet that these particular poll rating are absolutely accurate - based on whom the WAPO/ABC pollsters asked.

You see, this is the second time the WAPO/ABC news poll has neglected to release figures on the Democrat/Republican/Independent percentages in its report...and I'd bet that going to be the way things go with this particular poll from now on until election day.

You might remember an occasion last December when we examined the mechanics of a WAPO/ABC poll that oversampled Democrats and was weighted as much as 50% to 60% weighted towards the Left end of the spectrum. And there was this one, with the same pollsters that only sampled 22% Republicans to get the desired results.

At least on those occasions, someone who could read between the lines and look at the mechanics could see how badly the polls were skewed. But the WAPO/ABC pollsters have learned,and now they aren't even releasing any figures on the affiliation whom they polled.And to skew it even more, they merely polled 1,000 adults, rather than likely voters, something utterly ridiculous for primary season. For all we know, they could have polled 700 hardcore SEIU members and talked to the other 300 at a supermarket parking lot.

Based on their previous track record, I'd say that this particular WAPO/ABC poll is worth about as much as what's pictured above. Less in fact, because at least the product above has value as manure.

There's no question that President Obama's overall ratings probably are up a bit because of the GOP infighting, the partisan press coverage and the highly manipulated economic data. I wouldn't count on the third factor lasting until November.

Gallup State Approval Numbers Predict An Obama Loss

The above is an interesting one from the latest Gallup Poll( via memeorandum). It's based on Gallup's annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers for 2011, and shows what the 2012 election would look like if President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent).

The generic GOP candidate beats him 323 electoral votes to 215.

Now, a projection of this kind has its faults. For one thing, 2011 is not 2012, and this map shows a generic Republican rather than a specific candidate, which would change the map considerably.So would turnout factors

Allowing for that, all things being equal my personal caveats would be as follows:

I would expect President to take Oregon and either Pennsylvania or Ohio. That would add 25-27 electoral votes to the Democrat total - still far short of 270.As a matter of fact, even taking Oregon and both Ohio and Pennsylvania still leave the president 10 electoral votes shy of the magic number

Assuming the above unlikely scenario - that President Obama takes all of the Blue states above plus Oregon, Ohio and Pennsylvania - to win, he'd need at least two of the following states: Colorado,Nevada, Iowa or New Mexico.The odds are far better that the president would take Oregon, either Ohio or Pennsylvania and two of the four states I just mentioned...which would still leave him shy of 270.

Depending on the candidate, it's very possible that Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan will be in play for the GOP. Mitt Romney, for instance, would be tough to beat in Michigan and possibly Wisconsin.

I wouldn't dream of making a personal projection this far out,but this doesn't look good for the White House.

Gallup State Approval Numbers Predict An Obama Loss

The above is an interesting one from the latest Gallup Poll( via memeorandum). It's based on Gallup's annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers for 2011, and shows what the 2012 election would look like if President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent).

The generic GOP candidate beats him 323 electoral votes to 215.

Now, a projection of this kind has its faults. For one thing, 2011 is not 2012, and this map shows a generic Republican rather than a specific candidate, which would change the map considerably.So would turnout factors

Allowing for that, all things being equal my personal caveats would be as follows:

I would expect President to take Oregon and either Pennsylvania or Ohio. That would add 25-27 electoral votes to the Democrat total - still far short of 270.As a matter of fact, even taking Oregon and both Ohio and Pennsylvania still leave the president 10 electoral votes shy of the magic number

Assuming the above unlikely scenario - that President Obama takes all of the Blue states above plus Oregon, Ohio and Pennsylvania - to win, he'd need at least two of the following states: Colorado,Nevada, Iowa or New Mexico.The odds are far better that the president would take Oregon, either Ohio or Pennsylvania and two of the four states I just mentioned...which would still leave him shy of 270.

Depending on the candidate, it's very possible that Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan will be in play for the GOP. Mitt Romney, for instance, would be tough to beat in Michigan and possibly Wisconsin.

I wouldn't dream of making a personal projection this far out,but this doesn't look good for the White House.

NYT Poll Finds Obama’s Favorability Rating Down To 38% – Only 31% Among Independents…

According to the latest Rasmussen poll...oh wait, this is a NYT/CBS Poll!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Independent voters, who helped propel President Barack Obama to victory in the 2008 election, could be an obstacle in his bid for a second term in the White House, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll published on Wednesday.

A majority of independent voters have soured on Obama’s presidency, disapprove of his handling of the economy and do not have a clear idea of what he hopes to accomplish if re-elected, the Times reported.

Only 31 percent of independent voters have a favorable opinion of the president and two-thirds say he has not made real progress in fixing the economy, the newspaper said.

In 2008, Obama won support from 52 percent of independent voters, compared with 44 percent who supported Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

Among all voters, 38 percent view Obama favorably, 45 percent unfavorably and 17 percent have no opinion, the survey showed. Voters were evenly divided in a matchup between Obama and Romney, but Obama fared better against other Republican candidates, the Times said

Note that this is a favorability rating, not a job approval rating, but it's important. One thing the president's apologists have always banked on is his 'likeability', the belief that this president is basically a nice guy even though he's treating the electorate like a bunch of simple minded serfs who exist only to do his and Mooch-elle's bidding, Apparently that's no longer true, and if Pravda-on-the-Hudson is allowing these numbers to see the light of day even on page A-16, the real ones must be devastating.

It's also worth noting that out of the four most recent polls, only the NYT/CBS poll shows President Obama's job approval ratings barely in plus territory - and that's well within the margin of error.

Job approval ratings are flexible and can come back, but favorability ratings relate to people's gut feelings about a candidate. Once they tank, it's hard if not impossible to bring them back.

NYT Poll Finds Obama’s Favorability Rating Down To 38% – Only 31% Among Independents…

According to the latest Rasmussen poll...oh wait, this is a NYT/CBS Poll!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Independent voters, who helped propel President Barack Obama to victory in the 2008 election, could be an obstacle in his bid for a second term in the White House, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll published on Wednesday.

A majority of independent voters have soured on Obama’s presidency, disapprove of his handling of the economy and do not have a clear idea of what he hopes to accomplish if re-elected, the Times reported.

Only 31 percent of independent voters have a favorable opinion of the president and two-thirds say he has not made real progress in fixing the economy, the newspaper said.

In 2008, Obama won support from 52 percent of independent voters, compared with 44 percent who supported Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

Among all voters, 38 percent view Obama favorably, 45 percent unfavorably and 17 percent have no opinion, the survey showed. Voters were evenly divided in a matchup between Obama and Romney, but Obama fared better against other Republican candidates, the Times said

Note that this is a favorability rating, not a job approval rating, but it's important. One thing the president's apologists have always banked on is his 'likeability', the belief that this president is basically a nice guy even though he's treating the electorate like a bunch of simple minded serfs who exist only to do his and Mooch-elle's bidding, Apparently that's no longer true, and if Pravda-on-the-Hudson is allowing these numbers to see the light of day even on page A-16, the real ones must be devastating.

It's also worth noting that out of the four most recent polls, only the NYT/CBS poll shows President Obama's job approval ratings barely in plus territory - and that's well within the margin of error.

Job approval ratings are flexible and can come back, but favorability ratings relate to people's gut feelings about a candidate. Once they tank, it's hard if not impossible to bring them back.

Iowa Comes Down ToThe Wire

The latest polls show Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, followed by Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Michele Bachmann is bringing up the rear, having fallen to single digits.

Romney campaigned in Des Moines today, stumping with New Jersey governor Chris Christie on a cold wet day with temperatures in the twenties. Considering the weather, Romeny drew a decent crowd as he mocked President Obama and his $4 million Hawaiian vacation.

"We’re out in the cold and the rain and the wind because we care about America. He just finished his 90th round of golf.”

Governor Christie: “You people disappoint me on Tuesday, you don’t do what you’re supposed to do on Tuesday for Mitt Romney I will be back, Jersey-style, people. I will be back,” he joked.

Rick Santorum is moving up in the polls as Newt Gingrich has been falling. A lot of evangelicals are reportedly giving him a second look. He's invested a great deal of time here in Iowa and he needs a strong finish here to keep his campaign viable.

Michele Bachmann has perhaps the saddest story of all. After winning the Ames straw poll, she suffered perhaps a terminal blow when her Iowa campaign chair defected to Ron Paul without giving her any warning whatsoever.

As much as I like Michele Bachmann, I think what we're seeing here is an indication that her campaign was hurried and perhaps premature. She's only been in Congress four years,and hopefully she can make another try for top job when she's had a little more seasoning and time to process what went wrong this time.

Iowa Comes Down ToThe Wire

The latest polls show Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, followed by Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich. Michele Bachmann is bringing up the rear, having fallen to single digits.

Romney campaigned in Des Moines today, stumping with New Jersey governor Chris Christie on a cold wet day with temperatures in the twenties. Considering the weather, Romeny drew a decent crowd as he mocked President Obama and his $4 million Hawaiian vacation.

"We’re out in the cold and the rain and the wind because we care about America. He just finished his 90th round of golf.”

Governor Christie: “You people disappoint me on Tuesday, you don’t do what you’re supposed to do on Tuesday for Mitt Romney I will be back, Jersey-style, people. I will be back,” he joked.

Rick Santorum is moving up in the polls as Newt Gingrich has been falling. A lot of evangelicals are reportedly giving him a second look. He's invested a great deal of time here in Iowa and he needs a strong finish here to keep his campaign viable.

Michele Bachmann has perhaps the saddest story of all. After winning the Ames straw poll, she suffered perhaps a terminal blow when her Iowa campaign chair defected to Ron Paul without giving her any warning whatsoever.

As much as I like Michele Bachmann, I think what we're seeing here is an indication that her campaign was hurried and perhaps premature. She's only been in Congress four years,and hopefully she can make another try for top job when she's had a little more seasoning and time to process what went wrong this time.

Pollster cartoon

Buy this and a zillion other Obama designs on merchandise at ZAZZLE.

Obama's Media Allies Break Out The Bogus 'Polls' Weapon

*Chuckle* Yes, the president's media allies are at it again.

There are two new polls out today showing a dramatic increase in President Obama's poll numbers...and they're similar enough in their results that I wouldn't be surprised if they were, you know. 'coordinated' to come up with the desired results...and headlines, of course.

The first one, from CNN, claims that "49% of Americans approve of the job Obama's doing in the White House, up five points from last month, with 48% saying they disapprove, down six points from mid-November."

When you look at the actual poll, it claims it was conducted December 16-18 with 1,015 adult Americans by telephone, over 90% with registered voters rather than likely voters. And the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, fairly large for such a small sample.

The poll gives no actual mechanics on who was asked and how they identified themselves, so cherry picking and oversampling of certain groups to get the desired numbers - like registered Democrats - is a given.it also includes a 'moderately approve' category, almost a given if the pollster's looking for manipulation room.

What it doesn't hide is that those who 'strongly approve' of President Obama's job performance has gone down over the past year from 30% to 26%, while those whom strongly disapprove has increased from 28% to 33%..and that's with the obvious cherry picking.

The second one, done by the Washington Post/ABC News was conducted by telephone December 15-18 2011, among what the WAPO calls a random national sample of 1,005 adults. It has a 3.5% plus or minus margin of error, again rather large for such a small sample. According to this poll, the president's approval rating in 49% versus a 47% disapproval rating.

The WAPO/ABC poll includes a 'somewhat' category. If we look at those who strongly approve of the president versus those who strongly disapprove, the number is 25% versus 34%.

Even more revealing is the mechanics of the poll, which the WAPO/ABC at least had the honesty to release. They oversampled Democrat by a mere 7%, admitting to polling 32% Democrats to 25% Republicans. The rest of the numbers were made up of 'independents', a very handy catch all for a pollster to make whatever he wanted out of the respondents.

Even more revealing is the breakdown of ideology. According to the poll, the respondents questioned are identified as 23% 'liberal', 36% 'conservative' and 37% 'moderate'. Since we already know that 'moderate' in dinosaur media speak means 'Republicans and others who aren't democrats but normally vote like Democrats', the poll sampling could be as much as 50% to 60% weighted towards the Left end of the spectrum!

Just to show you how doctored these two polls are, by comparison Gallup show the president over the same time period with a 43% approval rating versus a 50% disapproval rating. Rasmussen shows him slightly higher, at 47% approval to 51% disapproval..but with only 21% 'strongly approve' as opposed to 39% 'strongly disapprove'. That's very different, as Emily Latella used to say.

Yes, figures lie and liars figure, especially when it comes to polls. It's all in what you ask and whom you ask.

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Obama's Media Allies Break Out The Bogus 'Polls' Weapon

*Chuckle* Yes, the president's media allies are at it again.

There are two new polls out today showing a dramatic increase in President Obama's poll numbers...and they're similar enough in their results that I wouldn't be surprised if they were, you know. 'coordinated' to come up with the desired results...and headlines, of course.

The first one, from CNN, claims that "49% of Americans approve of the job Obama's doing in the White House, up five points from last month, with 48% saying they disapprove, down six points from mid-November."

When you look at the actual poll, it claims it was conducted December 16-18 with 1,015 adult Americans by telephone, over 90% with registered voters rather than likely voters. And the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, fairly large for such a small sample.

The poll gives no actual mechanics on who was asked and how they identified themselves, so cherry picking and oversampling of certain groups to get the desired numbers - like registered Democrats - is a given.it also includes a 'moderately approve' category, almost a given if the pollster's looking for manipulation room.

What it doesn't hide is that those who 'strongly approve' of President Obama's job performance has gone down over the past year from 30% to 26%, while those whom strongly disapprove has increased from 28% to 33%..and that's with the obvious cherry picking.

The second one, done by the Washington Post/ABC News was conducted by telephone December 15-18 2011, among what the WAPO calls a random national sample of 1,005 adults. It has a 3.5% plus or minus margin of error, again rather large for such a small sample. According to this poll, the president's approval rating in 49% versus a 47% disapproval rating.

The WAPO/ABC poll includes a 'somewhat' category. If we look at those who strongly approve of the president versus those who strongly disapprove, the number is 25% versus 34%.

Even more revealing is the mechanics of the poll, which the WAPO/ABC at least had the honesty to release. They oversampled Democrat by a mere 7%, admitting to polling 32% Democrats to 25% Republicans. The rest of the numbers were made up of 'independents', a very handy catch all for a pollster to make whatever he wanted out of the respondents.

Even more revealing is the breakdown of ideology. According to the poll, the respondents questioned are identified as 23% 'liberal', 36% 'conservative' and 37% 'moderate'. Since we already know that 'moderate' in dinosaur media speak means 'Republicans and others who aren't democrats but normally vote like Democrats', the poll sampling could be as much as 50% to 60% weighted towards the Left end of the spectrum!

Just to show you how doctored these two polls are, by comparison Gallup show the president over the same time period with a 43% approval rating versus a 50% disapproval rating. Rasmussen shows him slightly higher, at 47% approval to 51% disapproval..but with only 21% 'strongly approve' as opposed to 39% 'strongly disapprove'. That's very different, as Emily Latella used to say.

Yes, figures lie and liars figure, especially when it comes to polls. It's all in what you ask and whom you ask.

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Politico Beclowns Itself Again - 'Barack Obama's Approval Ratings Rising With Jews' - In Israel

In spite of its obvious agenda and its staff riddled with ObamaBot Journolistas, the Politico continues to masquerade as a serious news site, and some people actually treat it as such.

In its latest spinfest, written by one Mackenzie Weinger, the Politico claims that President Barack Obama's approval ratings are growing by leaps and bounds among Jews in Israel:

In just a year, Jewish Israelis’ opinion of President Barack Obama has turned on its head, according to a new Saban Center for Middle East Policy poll.

A majority, or 54 percent, now say they have a favorable view of the U.S. president — a year ago, just 41 percent of those polled viewed Obama in a positive light.

In 2011, 39 percent say they have a negative opinion of Obama, another far cry from his 2010 numbers when 51 percent said they were not fans of Obama. That’s a net 25-point upswing for Obama in Israel.

The good news from Israel offsets the slight negative turn Obama has seen from Jewish American voters: In a Gallup poll released in September, four out of 10 said they disapproved of Obama, and his approval ratings fell from 60 percent in June to 55 percent.{snip}

The 2011 Public Opinion Poll of Jewish and Arab Citizens of Israel, conducted in conjunction with Zogby International, surveyed 1,010 people living in Israel in November 2011.

Gee, isn't it funny that the Politico story never mentions that the Saban Peace Center, who conducted the poll is run and financed by Chaim Saban, a major Democrat donor and financier?

And that the poll was conducted by an anti-Israel Arab-American John Zogby's firm, whose brother James is president of the vociferously Israel hating Arab American Institute?

Not only that, but the poll even admits it focused on1,010 Jewish and Arab citizens in Israel. What do you suppose the ratio of Jews to Arabs was, and how did they screen the kind of Jews they polled? Want to bet that a lot of them were American Jews living in Israel who still are Democrat voters, and Jews affiliated with far Left parties like Meretz?

This is nothing more than a transparent attempt to convince American Jews that President Obama isn't the most anti-Israel president in US history, and that they should line up like good little sheep and pull the lever for him again.

For the Politico to run this story without letting its readers know who was behind the poll and their obvious agenda is simply disgraceful.

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Politico Beclowns Itself Again - 'Barack Obama's Approval Ratings Rising With Jews' - In Israel

In spite of its obvious agenda and its staff riddled with ObamaBot Journolistas, the Politico continues to masquerade as a serious news site, and some people actually treat it as such.

In its latest spinfest, written by one Mackenzie Weinger, the Politico claims that President Barack Obama's approval ratings are growing by leaps and bounds among Jews in Israel:

In just a year, Jewish Israelis’ opinion of President Barack Obama has turned on its head, according to a new Saban Center for Middle East Policy poll.

A majority, or 54 percent, now say they have a favorable view of the U.S. president — a year ago, just 41 percent of those polled viewed Obama in a positive light.

In 2011, 39 percent say they have a negative opinion of Obama, another far cry from his 2010 numbers when 51 percent said they were not fans of Obama. That’s a net 25-point upswing for Obama in Israel.

The good news from Israel offsets the slight negative turn Obama has seen from Jewish American voters: In a Gallup poll released in September, four out of 10 said they disapproved of Obama, and his approval ratings fell from 60 percent in June to 55 percent.{snip}

The 2011 Public Opinion Poll of Jewish and Arab Citizens of Israel, conducted in conjunction with Zogby International, surveyed 1,010 people living in Israel in November 2011.

Gee, isn't it funny that the Politico story never mentions that the Saban Peace Center, who conducted the poll is run and financed by Chaim Saban, a major Democrat donor and financier?

And that the poll was conducted by an anti-Israel Arab-American John Zogby's firm, whose brother James is president of the vociferously Israel hating Arab American Institute?

Not only that, but the poll even admits it focused on1,010 Jewish and Arab citizens in Israel. What do you suppose the ratio of Jews to Arabs was, and how did they screen the kind of Jews they polled? Want to bet that a lot of them were American Jews living in Israel who still are Democrat voters, and Jews affiliated with far Left parties like Meretz?

This is nothing more than a transparent attempt to convince American Jews that President Obama isn't the most anti-Israel president in US history, and that they should line up like good little sheep and pull the lever for him again.

For the Politico to run this story without letting its readers know who was behind the poll and their obvious agenda is simply disgraceful.

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Liberal Media cartoon

This cartoon is refurbished from one three years ago.  All I had to do was change the caption from "President-elect" to "President" and it still works fine.  The media hasn't changed a bit.  Old version is below.

Obama Hits New Low - 38%!

Today's Gallup Poll has approval ratings for the president at 38%, with a a disapproval rate of 53%. The poll was taken between October 4th and October 6th.

The other recent polls are pretty similar. Rasmussen has him at 42% approval with 57% disapproval, Quinnipiac has him at 41% - 55% and ABC News/Washington Post poll has him at 42% approval and 54% disapproval. Average 'em out and you end up with 40.7% approval versus 54.75% disapproval.

The polls all differ in their actual mechanics, but one thing that becomes clear when you get into them is that the president's disapproval numbers are solidifying, with the percentage of respondents who say they strongly disapprove of this president and his policies steadily growing.

As you know, most polls oversample Democrats and many people have trouble criticizing a black president for fear of appearing 'racist'. I'd say Obama's aggregate approval number is probably in the mid-thirties and dropping.

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Obama Hits New Low - 38%!

Today's Gallup Poll has approval ratings for the president at 38%, with a a disapproval rate of 53%. The poll was taken between October 4th and October 6th.

The other recent polls are pretty similar. Rasmussen has him at 42% approval with 57% disapproval, Quinnipiac has him at 41% - 55% and ABC News/Washington Post poll has him at 42% approval and 54% disapproval. Average 'em out and you end up with 40.7% approval versus 54.75% disapproval.

The polls all differ in their actual mechanics, but one thing that becomes clear when you get into them is that the president's disapproval numbers are solidifying, with the percentage of respondents who say they strongly disapprove of this president and his policies steadily growing.

As you know, most polls oversample Democrats and many people have trouble criticizing a black president for fear of appearing 'racist'. I'd say Obama's aggregate approval number is probably in the mid-thirties and dropping.

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Panhandler cartoon