Which Way Is The GOP Race Headed?

Now that the Illinois primary is over, it might be a good time to actually examine the GOP race in the cold light of fact. And the fact is that Rick Santorum faces an almost impossible task in getting the GOP nomination barring something crazy happening. And that's especially true since he lost huge in Illinois tonight.

Let's take a brief look at the actual math involved.

To get the nomination, you need 1,144 delegates.

Right now, not taking Illinois 54 delegates into account, Mitt Romney has 521 delegates, while Rick Santorum has 253. Newt Gingrich, who's no longer really a factor has 135.

There are 289 unbound 'super delegates' not pledged to Santorum, Gingrich or Paul. Mitt Romney already has 33 of those delegates..giving him a total of 554.

The next slew of upcoming primaries include 329 delegates who will be awarded on a winner take all basis, all in states Romney is heavily favored to win - Maryland (37), Washington DC (16), Delaware (17),California (169), NewJersey (50), and Utah (40) that gives Romney a total of 883, not counting Romney's Illinois win ( 54 delegates) , not counting any delegates Romney picks up in other states that award delegates proportionately and not counting any additional super delegates that get behind the front runner, as they always do towards the end.

The other upcoming proportional primaries in New York (95 delegates) and Rhode Island ( 19 delegates) also strongly favor Romney.

Even if Rick Santorum wins the only other winner take all primary in Wisconsin, (42 delegates), even if he wins most of Louisiana's 46 delegates, even if he manages to get most of the delegates in his home state of Pennsylvania, even if he wins the majority of the 155 delegates in Texas ( and I think both Texas and Pennsylvania going totally to Santorum are doubtful ) the math just isn't there for him to get to 1,144.

Unless Mitt Romney commits such a huge gaffe that he simply knocks himself out of the race.

What I think this means is that both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich need to do some serious thinking. Both of them say they want to defeat Barack Obama in November, and neither of them have any strategy left to get the nomination outside of some kind of sabotage at the convention.

Meanwhile, as the contentious GOP primary continues eating up oxygen and money,President Obama is flying around the country at the taxpayer's expense and building his campaign and his war chest unimpeded.

I hope both of them sit back, take a deep breath and reflect on these two facts.